Tis the season for new year predictions! Realtor.com is out with its 2024 outlook, offering slight improvements amid a rocky residential real estate market.
Since May 2022, purchasing the typical for-sale home listing at the 7-plus percent 30-year fixed-rate mortgage required more than a quarter or more of the typical household paycheck. Realtor.com expects that a return to pricing in line with financing costs will begin in 2024, and home prices, mortgage rates, and income growth will each contribute to the improvement. Home prices are expected to ease slightly, dropping less than 2 percent for the year on average.
In 2024, as modest price declines take hold and mortgage rates dip, the typical purchase cost is expected to slip just under $2,200 which would amount to nearly 35 percent of income.
While overall sales are not likely to improve by great lengths in the new year, moves of necessity–job changes, family situation changes, and downsizing–are likely to drive home sales in 2024. The report finds that sales are expected to remain essentially unchanged at just over 4 million.
In 2024, Realtor.com expects the rental market will closely resemble 2023, likely resulting in a mild annual decline of -0.2 percent in the median asking rent.