The 2023 hurricane season has just begun and CoreLogic is ringing alarm bells, calling attention to the millions of homes that are at risk as climate change continues to bolster stronger storms.
According to CoreLogic’s 2023 Hurricane Risk Report, more than 32 million single-family residences and an additional 1 million multifamily residences are at moderate or greater risk of sustaining damage from hurricane-force winds this year. Researchers estimate the combined reconstruction cost for the aforementioned homes could be $11.6 trillion.
Some 6.3 million homes face extreme hurricane wind risk while nearly 15 million face very high risk.
Approximately 7.8 million homes have direct or indirect coastal exposure, making them susceptible to storm surge flooding. In the event that these homes face strong storms this year, CoreLogic anticipates reconstruction costs could run $2.6 trillion.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) 2023 hurricane forecast called for 12-17 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes. It also indicates a 30 percent chance of 2023 being an above-normal season.
Among major metro areas noted as areas of concern, New York has more than 4 million homes that could be impacted by northern hurricanes, while other majorareas with substantial hurricane wind risk include Houston, Miami, New Orleans and Ft. Lauderdale. While hurricanes are more likely to land in South Florida or along the Gulf Coast than in the U.S. Northeast, the New York metro area includes more exposed homes based on proximity to the coast and population density.
The report notes that climate change is expected to further alter hurricane activity, increasing and intensifying hurricane-related risk across coastal counties. Research suggests that by the year 2050, more powerful storms, a rise in sea level and warmer atmospheric temperatures will give hurricanes a greater capacity to hold more moisture. Simultaneously, warmer sea surface temperatures give storms the fuel to penetrate further inland before dissipating.
As a result, hurricane risk will extend farther inland to locations that were previously shielded from consequential damage.