Regular readers of real estate journalist Jonathan Lansner know he loves a spreadsheet and some crunchy data. A peek at his Bubble Watch Index, though, is showing potential trouble in the Inland Empire.
According to Lansner, Riverside and San Bernardino Counties together rank as the fourth riskiest housing marketing among the big 47 markets tracked across the country. Using April’s data on overvaluation (listing prices vs. values); overheating (list-price gains vs. value increases); selling speed (days on market vs. a year ago); year’s inventory change and year’s rent change, Lansner theorizes that buyers are willing to overpay in more “affordable” markets in a feeding frenzy fueled by cheap mortgages and limited choices for house hunters.
Here’s how Riverside and San Bernardino Counties’ numbers shake out:
Pricing: $512,000 list vs. $460,833 value. An 11 percent overvaluation—41st highest of 47.
Appreciation: 22 percent list vs. 16.2 percent value. This represents the 10th largest gap of the 47 markets with a 36 percent overheated score.
Sales speed: 28 days on market, down 50 percent year-over-year
Inventory: Down 64 percent in year—#11 in decline.
Rents: Up 15 percent in year—#1 in increase.
Keeping the Inland Empire company in the top five “risky” markets are Atlanta, followed by Detroit, Jacksonville and Tampa-St. Petersburg.
Read more of Lansner’s evaluation by clicking here.